USDA Forecasts Slightly Larger Almond Crop
Harvest 2025 is estimated to be up 3 percent above last year’s final production
The 2025 California Almond Subjective Forecast, published Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2025 will come in at 2.8 billion pounds, 3 percent above last year’s 2.73 billion pounds.
Forecasted yield is 2,010 pounds per acre, up 30 pounds from the 2024 harvest.
“This larger crop estimate is what the industry expected after a solid water winter and generally good weather during bloom, but it’s also a testament to the hard work done by almond farmers throughout California,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Demand for California almonds around the globe continues to grow and our almond farmers constantly deliver, producing high quality California almonds to meet that demand.”
The report shared that the 2025 almond bloom began the first week of February in the Sacramento Valley and peaked during the middle of the month. The weather during bloom varied throughout the state, with storms bringing heavy rainfall, wind and hail. Crop development in the San Joaquin Valley was slower than normal due to cool temperatures and lower bee flight hours. However, conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures accelerating the crop’s progress through the end of bloom.
There were also reports of significantly lower yields in the Nonpareil variety due to an overall lighter flower set than their pollinators. The impact on orchards from the intense summer heat in 2024 continues to be assessed. Growers are actively irrigating, fertilizing and treating their orchards for pests and diseases. Water is not expected to be an issue this year.
This Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 21 to May 7 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.
On July 10, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2025 California Almond Objective Report, which will be based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.
This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2025 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California has slightly increased about 6,000 acres from the previous year to 1.389 million bearing acres.
USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast and Objective Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.